UK beef production has run ahead of earlier forecasts so far in 2026, according to AHDB, supported by heavier carcases while cattle throughput has remained broadly in line with expectations.
Latest figures show UK beef production matched last year’s levels in the first half of the year, with stronger prime cattle weights offsetting fewer cattle going through abattoirs.
The prime cattle slaughter forecast remains largely unchanged at 1.99 million head for 2026, with supplies expected to stay close to 2025 levels through the rest of the year. A further near 1% decline is forecast for the prime kill in 2027.
AHDB said signs of a slowing decline in the national suckler herd, alongside increased heifer retention, will be important factors to monitor.
Defra data shows the UK produced 444,000 tonnes of beef and veal in the first half of 2026, almost identical to the volume recorded in the same period last year.
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However, the headline stability masks a tighter cattle supply. Between January and June, 1.31 million cattle and calves were slaughtered, down 34,000 head, or 2.5%, on the year.
Prime cattle carcase weights averaged 355kg, 10kg heavier than in H1 2025, helping to underpin total production. AHDB said weights were likely supported by a combination of pressure to recover margin against more expensive store cattle, strong finished cattle prices and more favourable feed costs.
Slaughter of both prime cattle, down 2.1%, and cows, down UK beef production has run ahead of earlier forecasts so far in 2026, supported by heavier carcases while cattle throughput has remained broadly in line with expectations.
According to a new report from AHDB, UK beef production matched last year’s levels in the first half of the year, with stronger prime cattle weights offsetting fewer cattle going through abattoirs.
The prime cattle slaughter forecast remains largely unchanged at 1.99 million head for 2026, with supplies expected to stay close to 2025 levels through the rest of the year. A 1% decline is forecast for the prime kill in 2027.
Reports from Defra reveal that the UK produced 444,000 tonnes of beef and veal in the first half of 2026, almost identical to the volume recorded in the same period last year. However, the headline stability masks a tighter cattle supply. Between January and June, 1.31m cattle were slaughtered, down 34,000 head, or 2.5%, on the year.
Prime cattle carcase weights averaged 355kg – 10kg heavier than in H1 2025, helping to underpin total production. AHDB said weights were likely supported by a combination of pressure to recover margin against more expensive store cattle, strong finished cattle prices and more favourable feed costs.
Slaughter of both prime cattle, down 2.1%, and cows, down 3.2%, fell compared with a year earlier. The sharpest fall was in heifers, down 2.9%, with numbers continuing to ease from the high recorded in H1 2024. Steer slaughterings also dropped by 2.3%, while the young bull kill rose by 3.7% year-on-year after several years of decline.
The share of adult cattle slaughter accounted for by heifers and cows has slipped slightly so far in 2026 to 53.7%, after increasing for several years, suggesting retention has strengthened.
Cow slaughter in the first half was also below AHDB’s February forecast, while cattle population data and slaughter trends suggest the pace of suckler herd contraction may be starting to slow.
The cow slaughter forecast has been revised down to 582,000 head, a fall of 2.2% on the year. Taking account of stronger prime carcase weights, the beef production forecast has been lifted to 898,000t, up 0.4% year-on-year.
Looking ahead, AHDB’s current 2027 prime cattle slaughter forecast follows a similar, but slightly shallower, downward path. A further 1% fall in the UK prime kill is expected, taking numbers to 1.98m head.
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