We are into the last month of a year that has seen thousands of lives lost and many more ruined due to the actions of a man whose mind must be warped in some way, to cause the destruction of a great country like Ukraine, plus the unbelievable suffering of the people.

I have only met a few Russian farmers and they certainly never showed any aggression to the west. Putin has definitely conned the West into believing that he could supply all the oil and gas Western Europe required. No matter what all the Greens, and do-gooders say, we will need oil and gas for at least the next 50 years and possibly longer.

This column predicted back at the start of the war when fertiliser prices began to rise, that we would see food rationing again, something that we had not experienced since the second World War. We are also seeing food inflation, in fact it still has some way to go in the UK, due to successive governments keeping the real cost of food production artificially low, in order to win votes!

They have aided and abetted supermarkets to hammer suppliers by every method possible in order to keep inflation down. Well, I am afraid the time for screwing farmers into the ground, is coming to an end.

With ag-flation running at 30%-plus, the time has come for an end to cheap UK food. Production in every sector is falling and going to fall further. The cause of the reduction worldwide, is the cost of fertiliser.

In my lifetime – remember you can’t have a meal without a farmer – we have fed a vastly growing world population, all because of the invention of fertiliser. Sixty years ago, it cost £12 per ton and today it's £800 (sometimes £1000).

It is impossible to produce food at that rate of cost-flation, so if politicians think that the current inflation of 12% is high, I am afraid it is going to increase if we farmers are to feed the nation.

If we cannot produce it, can it be imported? Our politicians seem to think that will be easy, but my research around the world this past few days, tells me a very different story.

Firstly, it is doubtful if there is any surplus food anywhere in the world and secondly, it is going to be expensive to ship it from abroad. That tells me that the possibility of cheap food, produced to the same standards as the UK, is unlikely.

On imported food, how about the revelations from George Eustice about the Aussie 'free trade' deal and Liz Truss’ involvement. In order to turn up at the G7 meeting in Cornwall, last summer claiming what a wonderful deal she had done, Eustice revealed that she had shafted farmers and admitted that he disagreed with her. Surely there must be some clause in the agreement that allows some force majeure.

In November, we had various fatstock exhibitions. The first major one after Covid, was the Agri Expo, at Carlisle, run by H and H, which may have been the largest event, but unfortunately could not attend, spending a frustrating half hour trying to tune into the show on the laptop! The grand-kids are never around when you need them!

Anyway, they certainly had the largest classes for haltered cattle and I did like the Betts’ black heifer, and Ian Nimmo’s Limmy , which I thought could have been champion and reserve.

Almost 30 years ago, the late Ian Galloway invited me to the joint Scotbeef, Marks and Spencers, and Scottish National Fatstock Club, live-dead exhibition, then held at Perth Market. I would say that this had turned out to be the best meat exhibition in the UK – the live judging is unique, due to the fact that no halters are involved, so the judge had no way of knowing wo owned each animal and the same applied when the carcases are hung up for judging by a butcher.

There have been a few changes since Perth, later moving to Caledonian Mart at Stirling, and now to Lanark, which is an excellent venue with super handling facilities, causing less upset for the cattle when moving them into the ring in batches for the judge.

It also had an excellent audio system, of which the SNFC could make better use of to inform the ringside about what was happening in the live ring, plus, it could make a better job of advertising such an excellent event for future years. Maybe this publication could help!

The live judging on the Wednesday evening, which son John ably placed, was followed by the carcase judging on the Saturday, at Scotbeef, Bridge of Allan, where we could view an excellent display of product supplied to M and S customers plus the lamb and beef carcases.

I have been at this event over many years, and with a gap of three years there was one noticeable difference in the shape of the cattle. Gone are the big back-sides and gutless cattle, being replaced by more forage types that need fewer cereals to finish them.

The third event was LiveScot, at Lanark and from all accounts it was a successful day for the Fatstock Club. Unfortunately, what used to be a premier show – the Christmas Classic at Thainstone, did not look very well supported, either with cattle or people, from what I could see on my laptop.

Read more: Jim Brown's Farmer's View: Trying to make the beef job stack up!

I think the largest class of haltered stock was four, so why do they still have an old-fashioned system of using two judges for so few cattle?

It begs the question: What is the future for showing haltered cattle – and not just beef cattle, for instance Agri-Scot had about half its normal numbers?

There are many reasons why showing is declining as far as prime-stock are concerned. It is nearly down to a handful of enthusiasts, due to the costs involved and fewer people on farms, so are those showing cattle out of touch with the commercial world?

Is the day of extreme shape no longer in fashion? Has the £400/tonne feed cost changed the kind of cattle we want to finish? Do we want big backsides and no rib capacity to handle roughages?

Many of us have been crying out for a long time for a change to our out-dated EUROP grading system. Are we ahead of the abattoirs who do not want to change?

Are consumers now more interested in a quality tasting experience as opposed to bland, red beef with no flavour or taste? Is QMS out of touch by wanting to reduce, or remove the 12-month age limit, when veal becomes beef?

My phone was red hot when one of it’s board members suggested that 12-month limit should be dropped. Should we not be going the other way and lifting the 30 months age limit to 36 months, similar to Ireland?

The UK is Ireland’s largest market for beef, which can be up to 36 months, yet beef here has to be under 30 months – a major hindrance to our quality native breeds which are now much in demand.

After all my banging on about changing the grading system, is it going to happen? In last week’s issue (page 5) it would appear that Wales and Aberystwyth University had used the grading model of the highly successful Meat Standards Australia (MSA) and this column has said many times that we needed to change to the US or Aussie systems (or a combination of both) if the UK is to be competitive in the world quality beef market.

Congratulations to Wales on this project. I wish them well in changing us away from the out-of-date EUROP system.

This is not crystal ball month yet, but it has been a year of change following Covid and more changes will come because of 30% ag-inflation.

Commenting on the beef sector: Firstly, we are going to see a substantial drop in beef cattle in Scotland, primarily caused by vast cost increases. The first to suffer could be the cattle haulage sector, next the auction markets, followed by abattoirs.

Way back when I first started at 12 years old to buy my first pigs, farmers only went to local markets to trade stock. That all changed 40-plus years ago when the likeable Robin Tough implemented his theory that if you procure the cattle, you get the buyers; and if you get the buyers, you find the cattle – so he set auctioneers, plus procurement people on to the road, the length and breadth of the country to source cattle for his store sales and one has to say, it worked.

Cattle were hauled several hundred miles to be sold at Stirling. Haulage costs were then a relatively small part of selling expenses, but it is very different today. Already, it appears to me that fewer cattle are being hauled long distances and I see farmers with large cattle trailers at auction centres today.

With the vast reduction in beef cattle numbers about to happen, how many auction markets will we need? The industry will not need so many white coats, costing on average £50,000 each per year, when more cattle are traded from farm to farm, or by mobile phone when stock are pictured, weighed over a weigh bridge and a price agreed by kg.

Market commission costs are changing the way cattle are traded today. My generation were auction market people, but that might no be the case with the next generation. So, the question will eventually be asked, which marts will close because of fewer cattle and high costs.

Will there be a surplus of auctioneers, or a surplus of abattoirs? Will we see some Irish mergers? There are rumours around that the Scottish kill could drop by 20 to 25% and there is also the reality that many cattle are going south to be slaughtered.

In fact, we are now on the brink of an English prime premium and I am seeing strong store cattle going south that are earning more than they can in Scotland.

Finally, on this clear December morning, with my rain gauge up to the end of November at 34-inches – my total for the whole of last year. may I wish my friends who read my ramblings, the best of health for another year, because without your health, wealth is not worth very much.

This past year has seen me wearing that black tie too often with the passing of friends from my ‘ain’ pen!