The poultry sector faces an out-and-out fight for survival if avian influenza was ever to take a hold on farms across Scotland – that's the stark warning from NFU Scotland’s poultry working group chair, Robert Thomson.

He told The Scottish Farmer this week that it faced ‘a wipe out’ if more measures are not put in place to slow the spread of the disease. Mr Thomson said: “If it keeps going as it is, it is going to be a wipe out. We were up to 105 cases in the UK last night since the start of October. We need a housing order for our birds as part of a package of measures to increase biosecurity.”

And it is already in Scotland. The highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has been confirmed at Turriff and Huntly, in Aberdeenshire; Coalhall, in Ayrshire; and Grimbister and Tankerness, in Orkney. A protective zone has been set up surrounding all those premises, plus there is a surveillance zone at Great Bernera, Isle of Lewis. There have also been cases in the wild bird population reported in across the Highlands and Stirlingshire.

At the start of this week England imposed a housing order for all poultry but Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland did not. Mr Thomson is pleading with the Scottish Government to copy England in setting up a housing order to keep all poultry indoors.

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“We are just not getting through to Scottish Government. It is not just the housing order, but it is an important step in a package of measures to fight the disease. The birds should be housed to keep away from the wild population, but the government is going off at a different canter. The industry is horrified.”

To make matters worse, insurers appear to be backing away from covering the costs of any bird flu outbreak. Mr Thomson explained that many were pulling out and those insurers still offering cover are setting a 40% excess and more than doubling product fees. There is a national compensation scheme which covers the value of birds destroyed in any outbreak, but it does not stretch to covering lost income and continuing overheads in broiler and layer units.

The obligatory cleaning of sheds after an outbreak is followed by three inspections by APHA, with total cost often running to a six-figure fee and most units will be out of production for at least five to six months, added Mr Thomson. He has also asked government for additional ‘life-line’ funding put in place to help cover the costs of farmers getting back into the industry – or they will simply 'walk away.'

He explained: “It is expensive and takes a long time to get back up and running after an outbreak. I seriously think that some businesses will leave sheds empty until the situation settles down. Going forward, people just can't afford to take the risk. Many could sit empty for a couple of years until new birds are put in.”

The impact of the disease can already be seen on the shelves, with egg shortages and the rising price of chicken meat in shops. Simply importing more product from abroad will also be a challenge as the disease is raging across the EU leading to millions of birds being culled.

The latest guidance from the Scottish Government, on Wednesday, was that a housing order was still not needed. A spokesperson said: “We are keeping the situation under constant review, however the current evidence does not yet justify imposing a housing order in Scotland.”

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On what criteria might be needed to introduce such an order, the spokesperson said: “The situation is kept under constant review and the decision on whether a housing order is introduced is a matter for Scotland’s Chief Veterinary Officer and follows the analysis of a wide range of available evidence. This includes numbers and geographical distribution of poultry cases, epidemiological reports on risk pathways, risk assessments on disease risk level, alongside case numbers and geographical distribution of wild bird findings.

“This is balanced with published data on the risk reduction of biosecurity measures, compared to risk reduction from housing, alongside welfare problems following housing. In addition, this is augmented by international disease monitoring and the situation in other countries, especially across GB.

“Lastly, a judgment is made from a veterinary perspective on the expected benefits of introducing a housing order against any potential consequences.”

Meanwhile, the British Free Range Egg Producers Association surveyed 165 of its members and found a third of had reduced the number of hens and quarter had stopped all production, either temporarily or permanently. The association represents about 550 egg businesses who produce about 70% of the UK’s free range and organic egg production.

In March, the egg industry called on the UK’s big retailers to increase the price of a dozen eggs by 40p to prevent the collapse of hundreds of egg producers. BFREPA said the average price of eggs had since increased by about 45p, but only a quarter of that – between 9p and 10p – had been passed on to farmers.