If the prospect of new rural legislation is something that puts a spring in your step, 2024 is shaping up to be a year full of intrigue.

Yet, as an organisation that represents farms and estates of all shapes and sizes, questions remain on whether this slew of new policies will serve Scotland’s rural communities well. In particular, substantial change is on the horizon for farming as the government looks to move the sector towards a sustainable and regenerative model.

The Scottish Farmer: Scottish Land and Estates cheif executive Sarah-Jane LaingScottish Land and Estates cheif executive Sarah-Jane Laing

The Agriculture and Rural Communities (Scotland) Bill was finally published after years of waiting and whilst we are supportive of the balance it seeks to achieve across food production, mitigating climate change, and restoring biodiversity, we still lack substantive detail that will only be delivered through future secondary legislation, plans and codes of practice.

We have been clear that both farming bodies and those on the ground should have a role to play in the creation of those papers, ensuring there is true co-design of policy. Farmers, crofters, and land managers will be expected to deliver progress on the environment and this can have benefits for both farming businesses and wider society.

It is vital, however, that we bring farmers on board and the government does not deliver a top-down diktat. In the first part of 2024, we do expect to see more detail on the funding allocation between tiers of the new support framework, further information on the whole farm plan, and detail on conditionality for the Basic Payment Scheme (BPS) until tiers are introduced as well as facts on what support will be available in 2025.

Further guidance on BPS and other schemes will also follow later in the year. Two things are certain, however. Firstly, any detail released on 2025 payments and guidance will give very little time for the sector to respond to and implement any necessary business changes. Secondly, the funds available to deliver these policy objectives are shrinking.

Whilst the Scottish Government claimed in its budget that direct support money for farmers was being maintained at pre-Brexit levels, inflation has diminished that pot – and that’s without mentioning the cuts in areas such as agri-environment measures.

Do more for less will be the mantra moving forward, which is concerning given the weight of expectations currently on land managers. Elsewhere, the Wildlife Management and Muirburn Bill will continue its passage through parliament whilst a new Land Reform Bill and a Natural Environment Bill are expected to be introduced.

There will also be a Housing Bill that is likely to have a substantial impact on the future of housing in rural areas. In the case of wildlife management and land reform, both policies typify where political ideology trumps evidence-led policymaking.

Whilst it is nearly certain that grouse moor licensing will become a reality, the Scottish Government has yet to show a willingness to bring forward sensible amendments to allow for a proportionate and workable scheme to come into effect.

Likewise, we have seen a ramping up of rhetoric around land reform that bears little resemblance to the contribution estates make to employment, food production, nature and the environment, housing, and energy.

Recent research we commissioned from BiGGAR Economics lays bare the stark choice the government faces between estates undertaking large-scale peatland restoration, housing development, and forestry projects and the pursuit of fragmentation of ownership. With all this ahead, 2024 is looking to be a busy year. We hope the right decisions will be reached to allow rural Scotland to prosper.