US tariffs drive Aussie beef boom

Speaking at the 2025 WagyuEdge conference in Perth, Western Australia last week, Erin Borrer of the US Meat Export Federation outlined a rapidly shifting global beef landscape, where tight supplies and trade tensions are reshaping the market, and Australia looks poised to benefit.

At the heart of the shift is China. Once a booming outlet for US beef, the market has ground to a halt.

More than 300 American abattoirs have lost their export eligibility due to lapsed paperwork under the Phase One Economic and Trade Agreement, effectively closing the gate on what was the US’s third-largest beef export destination.

The fallout is severe: US producers are losing up to $165 (£125) per head on cattle due to the absence of Chinese competition for high-value cuts like short rib and chuck. That’s a $4billion (£3bn) annual blow to the US beef sector – and an open door for Australia.

According to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), Australian grain-fed beef exports to China surged almost 40% in February and March year-on-year.

Andrew Simpson from Bindaree Food Group put it plainly: “If American beef becomes commercially unviable into those regions, Australian beef will fill the gap.” A silver lining down under.

Ironically, Australia itself was slapped with a 10% US tariff – a retaliatory move by Trump in response to Australia’s long-standing ban on US beef due to BSE concerns. But the sting is proving mild.

“I’m not too stressed by 10%,” said Andrew McDonald, also of Bindaree, noting that US buyers have already resumed interest in Australian shipments.

Even with the tariff, Aussie lean beef is landing in the US at $3.43 per lb (£6.05 per kg), which is still cheaper than domestic equivalents at around $3.80 per lb (£6.70 per kg).

And with the Australian dollar weakened against the greenback, local exporters are enjoying a currency buffer.

While the US market is weathering record prices, Borrer emphasised that it hasn’t yet faced a true supply crunch.

Production remains high due to heavier cattle weights and feedlot heifer numbers – even as the national herd sits at historic lows.

Yet a rebuild is not on the cards anytime soon.

High interest rates, drought conditions and generational shifts on US farms mean recovery will likely be slow and shallow.

The USMEF doesn’t expect beef production to rise again until at least 2028.

Meanwhile, inflation is biting into demand in Japan and Korea – both key US markets – further dampening export prospects.

Australia’s export rivals are also flexing. Brazil, in particular, is on the brink of a global game-changer.

A May decision by the World Organisation for Animal Health could see the entire country declared free of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) without vaccination. That could crack open major markets like Japan and turbocharge Brazil’s already surging exports – especially into China and Southeast Asia.

“They’ve already taken over the Philippines,” said Borrer.

“When Brazil gets access, they take over fast.”

Despite being competitors, Australia and the US maintain a complementary beef trade. Australia’s 90CL lean trim (boneless beef 90% lean meat 10% fat) is critical to America’s burger market – and as US cow slaughter dips, that need only grows.

Borrer praised the reliability of Australian product: “We need your 90% lean trim coming in to help supplement our demand for burgers,” he said.

While the short-term picture looks rosy for Australian exporters – with China ramping up orders and US buyers returning – some warn of broader economic risks.

Shadow trade minister Kevin Hogan has warned that a prolonged tariff war between the US and China could ultimately slow global growth, dragging down demand across all export sectors.

Still, for now, Australia holds a strong hand.

With the US stumbling in China and internal rebuilds years away, Australian beef finds itself in a rare sweet spot – a prime cut of opportunity in a world of lean margins.