Wildfire risk remains very high across Scotland next week

The latest assessment from Firebreak Services Ltd highlights a severe risk in eastern areas early in the week, spreading to western regions, the Central Belt, and the Southern Uplands by next week. Only low-lying areas with green grass expect a lower hazard.

Despite some recent showers, dry conditions persist due to the lingering effects of spring’s drought combined with August’s heat. Moss, heather, and the dead litter layer on hillsides and moorlands are tinder-dry, and upland vegetation remains vulnerable even where pasture is still green.

Forecast map shows wildfire ignition risk peaking across Scotland by Tuesday 19 August (Firebreak) As summer growth slows, many areas have over 50% brown, cured grass, supporting ignition and fire spread. Peat and mosses are especially susceptible; once dry, peat repels water and can smoulder underground, making fires difficult to extinguish.

Weather offers little relief, with moderate winds averaging 6mph and gusts up to 15mph, temperatures peaking at 24°C, and humidity dropping to 42% in the east on some afternoons. Rain will be limited to scattered showers.

Where dry, the Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) may exceed 85, increasing fire danger, especially if combined with gusty winds. Fire danger will peak midweek in the east, ease slightly over Friday and Saturday where rain falls, then rise again and spread widely by Monday and Tuesday.

Officials caution that although fire spread may be slower than in past major fires like Dava–Carrbridge, smouldering and re-kindling remain risks. Land managers are advised to avoid burning during high-risk periods and report wildfires immediately.