AHDB's Grain Outlook seminar at AgriScot brought together maltsters, farmers, researchers, and policy experts to discuss the future of sustainable arable production in Scotland.
Speakers from Bairds Malt, AHDB, and NFU Scotland outlined how innovation, environmental responsibility, and clear long-term planning will shape the next decade of Scottish farming.
Anthony Speight from AHDB told the audience that optimism around maize production was dominating prices globally in what remains a bear market. He said there had been a significant rise in global maize output, with more maize being produced in South America and the EU, leading to global supply outstripping demand. “The US maize harvest is finishing up and a lot is now coming onto the market,” he said. “There is also potential for Russian export rises, and no concern that South America will fail to continue its strong supply. The El Niño and La Niña weather phenomena, which can cut production in South America, appear at the moment unlikely to hit the continent. The market is currently pricing in a lot of maize coming from Brazil.”
Victoria Buxton, Bairds Malt and David Michie, NFUs (Image: web)
David Michie from NFU Scotland underlined the importance of the new Agriculture Bill and the legislation underpinning it for the future of Scottish farming. “The skeleton frameworks which underpin the Bill could be here for decades,” he said. The arable policy manager backed the need for greening on Scottish farms, as it allows the Scottish Government to maintain direct payments. He warned that without supporting greening requirements, Scottish farmers could face a future like England’s, where direct payments have all but disappeared.
Mr Michie also highlighted complications that could arise if Scottish rules mirror those of the EU. He pointed out that glyphosate application limits are lower in the EU and that the bloc has banned its use as a pre-harvest desiccant. However, reports from European farmers suggest it is still being used to control annual meadow grass before harvest, having a similar effect to traditional desiccation. He noted that British farmers’ stricter approach to compliance could make similar flexibility difficult in Scotland. Any future changes, he said, would need either opt-outs for Scottish growers or a long lead-in time.
The discussion as a whole reflected a farming sector under pressure to adapt rapidly but one that remains pragmatic and positive, focusing on practical solutions—from soil management to policy reform—to secure a sustainable future for Scottish agriculture.
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Bairds Malt sustainability manager, Victoria Buxton, shared insights into the latest findings from on-farm audits and carbon tracking, revealing where the biggest emission reductions are being achieved and what the next decade of progress will look like.
“The data shows we’re making real progress in cutting the carbon footprint of barley production,” she said. “Average emissions per tonne have steadily fallen since 2018, thanks to ongoing carbon audits, better soil management, and smarter fertiliser use.”
Through the Cool Farm Tool, farmers have been able to benchmark performance across holdings and track improvements over time. The next step will be introducing carbon modelling for storage and removals by 2026, helping to capture the benefits of soil carbon and organic matter. With initiatives like SAI membership and trials on carbon mapping already underway, many are confident that the sector is on the path toward achieving a 50 percent emissions reduction target by 2030.
Ms Buxton showed a slide explaining that the next wave of carbon savings in barley production could come directly from the field. It set out practical, on-farm changes that can naturally reduce emissions, including moving to one-pass cultivation systems and adopting minimum tillage where soils allow. It highlighted the benefits of fertiliser placement techniques that cut nitrous oxide losses, alongside the use of new crop varieties that deliver higher yields. The use of GPS precision technology and improved fuel management were also identified as key ways to boost efficiency.
On the input side, the focus was on cutting emissions from manufacturing through the introduction of green ammonia by 2030 to 2031, increasing the use of biofuel components in diesel, and reducing reliance on synthetic fertilisers and sprays. At the farm level, further gains could be achieved by reducing soil emissions, particularly nitrous oxide, through reduced tillage, split nitrogen applications, and the use of inhibitors to prevent nitrogen losses. Looking ahead, the slide showed how carbon sequestration can be increased through cover cropping, residue incorporation, and organic matter management—aiming for a balanced system that both reduces emissions and builds long-term resilience in Scottish barley production.
Bairds Malt’s data shows that fertiliser use and soil management are the biggest sources of carbon emissions on barley farms, accounting for around 38 percent of total CO₂ per tonne. When emissions from fertiliser production are included, that rises to more than two-thirds of the total footprint.
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