Scottish farm emissions fall as livestock numbers drop

Total emissions dropped to 7.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, the second-lowest level since records began in 1990, according to new Scottish Government figures.

The 0.4% fall comes despite rising fuel use on farms and increases in emissions intensity in arable production, raising fresh questions over how far Scotland can go in cutting emissions without reducing domestic food production.

Agriculture remains Scotland’s third-largest source of emissions, accounting for 19.3% of the national total.

The statistics confirm a long-term downward trend in agricultural emissions, which have fallen 13.7% since 1990.

However, that decline has been closely linked to falling livestock numbers rather than uniform reductions across production systems.

Cattle numbers have dropped by 21% and sheep by 35% over the same period, driving a significant reduction in methane emissions from enteric fermentation, the single largest source of agricultural greenhouse gases.

Enteric fermentation accounted for 4.0 MtCO₂e in 2024, just over half of total agricultural emissions.

Suckler beef remains the largest emitting subsector, responsible for 41.2% of agricultural emissions, although emissions from the sector have fallen by nearly a fifth since 1990.

In contrast to livestock trends, arable emissions moved in the opposite direction.

Emissions from arable farming increased by 1.9% in 2024 to 1.5 MtCO₂e, driven mainly by higher diesel use and increased fertiliser application in parts of the sector.

Average emission intensity for cereal production rose sharply, up 14% on cereal farms and 6% on general cropping farms, reflecting higher input use.

Nitrogen balance also increased by 3% to 46.1 kg surplus per hectare, although it remains below pre-2022 levels following recent fertiliser price spikes. Nitrogen use efficiency remained stable at around 33%.

Climate action and rural affairs secretary Gillian Martin said agriculture continued to play a central role in Scotland’s climate strategy, pointing to wider land-use measures including peatland restoration and woodland planting.

She said: “We continue to back our farmers and crofters to reduce emissions and improve their bottom line through sustainable farming practices.”

Martin highlighted peatland and forestry expansion, saying rural Scotland was already delivering climate action at scale.

“With over 10,000 hectares of peatland restored in 2023-24 and 53,000 hectares of woodland planted in the last five years,” she said.

She added that rural communities were central to net zero delivery, describing projects as supporting jobs, resilience and nature-based solutions.

The figures triggered renewed political division over the future of livestock farming in Scotland.

Scottish Conservative rural affairs spokesperson Finlay Carson warned that policy direction risked undermining the national herd and creating uncertainty for farmers and crofters.

He questioned whether government strategy was compatible with maintaining a viable beef and sheep sector and called for greater certainty for producers.

In response, Martin rejected suggestions that government policy was aimed at reducing livestock numbers.

She told MSPs: “I did not take the advice from the Climate Change Committee on active policies around reducing herd numbers in Scotland.”

She added: “I recognise that it will have a detrimental impact on our agriculture.”

Martin said reducing livestock numbers would risk exporting emissions abroad and confirmed that Scotland would take a different approach to UK-level recommendations.

“Scotland’s an agricultural nation and we must maintain our herd numbers,” she said.

She confirmed continued support for active farming through direct payments.

“With regard to how we sustain active farming we will give direct payments for active farming,” she said.

NFU Scotland welcomed continued reductions in emissions but warned against interpreting the figures as justification for further contraction of livestock production.

Senior policy manager Lorna Scott said farmers were continuing to make progress but needed policy support to maintain production alongside environmental improvements.

She said: “These figures show that Scottish farmers and crofters are continuing to make progress in reducing emissions, with agricultural greenhouse gas emissions now at their second-lowest level since 1990.”

However, she warned: “We do not want to see livestock production reduced further as this risks shifting both production and associated emissions overseas, rather than delivering genuine global emissions reductions.”

Scott said future policy should focus on innovation and efficiency rather than reducing output.

Sarah Millar, QMS chief executive, said: “Working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is an ongoing priority across Scotland’s sustainable producers and wider red meat supply chain, which goes hand in hand with productivity, food production and profitability.

“Simply reducing cattle and sheep numbers further is not a sustainable route to climate progress. It comes at the expense of national food security and overlooks the multiple economic, environmental and social goods of Scotland’s red meat sector, worth £3.5bn and supporting around 40,000 jobs in some of our most remote and rural communities.

“Much of Scotland’s farmland is only suited to grazing livestock, and our farms play a vital role in producing high-quality, nutritious protein. That is why the focus must be on promoting better animal health and productivity, breeding and nutrition.

“Through the Environmental Baselining Pilot, involving 22 Scottish livestock farms, initial results suggest current soil carbon measurement methodologies may be underestimating carbon stocks by a third or more. As this project focuses on the full above- and below-ground environmental picture of agriculture, it will continue to provide important data on where progress is being made and how Scottish farmers can continue to reduce emissions while supporting sustainable food production for generations to come.”

Over the longer term, Scotland’s agricultural emissions profile has shifted significantly.

Since 1990, emissions from enteric fermentation have fallen by nearly 20%, while manure management emissions are down more than 15%.

However, fuel combustion and liming emissions have increased, particularly in arable systems, reflecting mechanisation and changing input use.

Agriculture now accounts for just under a fifth of Scotland’s net emissions.

While the latest figures show continued incremental progress, they also underline a structural challenge at the heart of Scotland’s climate strategy: emissions reductions in agriculture remain closely tied to livestock numbers, while gains from efficiency and innovation are comparatively modest.