Climate change is already affecting Scotland’s barley supply chain and threatens both the yield and quality of one of the country’s most important crops, industry leaders warned during a panel discussion at the Royal Highland Show.
Opening the event, Mark Kent, CEO of the Scotch Whisky Association, highlighted the close relationship between agriculture and whisky production, telling attendees: “From soil to Scotch, Scotland’s whisky and farming industries are closely linked.”
He added: “The vast majority of cereals used to make Scotch whisky are sourced from Scottish farms, so a strong agricultural sector is essential for Scotch whisky’s success.”
However, that long-standing relationship is facing growing pressure. “We’re now facing shared challenges to how we operate, from the impact of the changing climate to rising production costs and uncertainties in global markets,” he said.
Setting out the scale of the challenge, Tim George, director of the International Barley Hub, warned that while Scotland’s barley sector remains strategically important, significant risks lie ahead.
“I don’t want to say we’re doomed,” he said, “but there’s lots of challenges coming down the line, and we need to identify those and come up with solutions.”
He described climate change as a ‘key issue’, alongside rising costs and supply security concerns, warning that weather patterns are becoming increasingly unpredictable.
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“The amount of rain is increasing, but the variability is increasing as well,” he said. “Some seasons are going to be very dry, some seasons are going to be very wet. We need to have systems that can cope with that.”
Research presented during the session suggested severe droughts could become significantly more common by 2050, while more extreme climate scenarios could result in declining barley yields across Scotland’s key arable regions.
“We need to future-proof our systems,” he said. “If we don’t maintain the quality, then we don’t have a value chain to work with.”
The discussion repeatedly returned to the fact that climate change is no longer a future challenge.
“This isn’t a conversation for the future,” said Ruth Piggin, SWA sustainability director, who chaired the panel. “These challenges are already impacting the supply chain today.”
Farmers are already seeing those impacts in the field. David Michie, NFU Scotland senior policy manager, told the audience that unusual rainfall patterns during the past growing season had created significant difficulties for barley producers.
“Any farmers in the audience will know that last year was really challenging,” he said. “Unusual weather patterns and unusual precipitation are causing these problems.”
Supply security remains a major concern for both farming and whisky businesses.
“Supply security is our key concern. That’s what we’re really worried about,” he said. “We’re affected by climate change ourselves in terms of water availability, and that can restrict our ability to produce.”
From the malting sector, Victoria Buxton, agricultural sustainability manager for Bairds Malt, said climate impacts are now being felt throughout the processing chain.
“From a malting perspective, we definitely see weather-related issues,” she said. “We’re seeing physiological issues, disease-related issues and operational impacts.”
She explained that hotter temperatures are already affecting operations. “If our temperatures are reaching 30 degrees, then that changes how we need to process the malt. We need smaller batch sizes, more water and more energy.”
However, she argued that climate pressures are only one part of a wider challenge.
“It’s more than just weather changes. There’s a convergence of factors,” she said, citing evolving sustainability requirements, disease pressures and changing market expectations.
A key theme throughout the discussion was the need for greater collaboration between farmers, researchers, maltsters and distillers.
“For us, it’s definitely about spreading risk,” she said. “Varieties are really important. We need varieties that can deal with the weather patterns we are seeing.”
She also called for more local research. “What we need is Scotland-specific trials. Scottish soils, Scottish climates, Scottish farming systems.”
The strongest calls from the floor focused on the need to diversify barley varieties and reduce dependence on a small number of dominant crops.
George Lawrie, chair of the International Barley Hub, warned: “One of the big risks we’ve got is you get concentrated farmers with 80% of your production in one variety. That is a massive risk.”
He urged the industry to provide clearer direction to researchers and breeders. “We are ready to do what you guys want if you can come and tell us what you want. We have got the tools to do that.”
The discussion concluded with broad agreement that resilience will only be achieved through closer cooperation across the entire supply chain.
As Piggin put it: “Collaboration across the supply chain is crucial for a resilient future.”
For an industry built on long-term investment and planning, the message was clear: adapting Scotland’s barley supply chain to a changing climate cannot wait until the future because the future has already arrived.
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