Heatwaves could cost farmers £390m in lost harvests

Using provisional yield estimates from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board, the ECIU estimates that as much as 2.5 million tonnes could be lost from this year's cereals and oilseed harvest compared with forecasts made earlier in the season.

If current yield estimates hold, total cereal and oilseed production will reach just 19.5 million tonnes, making 2026 the worst UK harvest since detailed records began in 1984, surpassing the poor harvest in 2020.

Even if yields improve before final figures are published, the analysis suggests 2026 is still likely to rank among the five worst harvests on record.

Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the ECIU, said farmers had entered spring with optimism before extreme weather reversed expectations.

"At the start of spring farmers were hopeful of a better year, but the dry April and July and record-breaking heat have left farmers facing down the barrel of a third awful harvest in a row."

He warned that farming was becoming increasingly exposed to climate change.

"From the wettest winter on record in 2024, to the hottest summer in 2025 and now unprecedented heat and drought this year, we are in danger of UK farming entering a climate ‘doom loop’, as repeated impacts undermine the capacity of farmers to drill next year's crop."

Lancaster added: "Without reducing emissions to net zero, to bring the climate back into balance, conditions will continue to deteriorate. It is now a clear priority for the future of UK food production, farming and the countryside that sustains it."

Earlier forecasts from the US Department of Agriculture and European cereals association COCERAL had predicted average or above-average yields before dry conditions and repeated heatwaves hit crops during key growth stages.

The analysis says a lack of rainfall since mid-June across many eastern and southern regions, combined with record-breaking temperatures, prevented grain from filling properly and significantly reduced yields.

Nature Friendly Farming Network chief executive and Cambridgeshire farmer Martin Lines said the season had been devastating.

"Harvest this year has been a real kick in the teeth. After two terrible harvests in a row, the crops this year were looking good and full of potential coming out of spring, only for months of drought and heatwaves to destroy any prospect of a decent harvest."

He added: "I've never known it this dry and hot on our farm. Even farmers I know who were sceptical of climate change are now saying they're really worried about the future of their businesses and production, it's just been completely brutal for our industry."

Lines also highlighted rising production costs.

"And with high input costs linked to the Iran war, planning crops for next year is a total nightmare. The nature-friendly practices we've deployed on the farm have helped our soils hold on to water for longer, but there's only so much you can do to adapt to these sorts of extremes."

The ECIU estimates current losses relate only to cereals and oilseeds, with drought also affecting potatoes, horticulture and livestock production.