We have had a brief spell of relatively drier weather lately here in the Borders, but the forecast is for cold and possibly some snow as well so not time to be thinking of getting onto the land just yet.

As we know, weather is what makes or breaks a farming year, and as it is the beginning of another year, a good time to reflect on past and future weather and climate issues that are looking to affect us all in the years to come. Last year, globally, was the hottest on record and each month from June to December was the hottest corresponding month on record.

Changing weather

The weather phenomenon EL Nino which brings heat from the oceans to the atmosphere is set to continue into spring 2024, pushing up the average global temperature along with greenhouse gas emissions which continue to rise.

Each decade has been warmer than the last since the 1980’s with the global average temperature having risen by around 1.25C since 1850-1900.

The global average temperature in 2023 was 14.98C which beats the previous hottest year set in 2016 by 0.17C and 2023 was the second warmest on record for the UK overall.

Global temperatures are projected to rise by around 3C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 with the current climate policies in place as countries have committed to trying to stop the Earth from heating beyond 1.5C and in 2023 we came closer to this figure at 1.4C. The Met Office believes 2024 will finish with an average temperature between 1.34C and 1.58C above the period between 1850-1900, the 11th year in a row that temperatures will have exceeded 1C.

Last year in Scotland was the third warmest after 2022 and 2014 and nine of the top-ten warmest years in Scotland have been since 2000 with 1997 the only one earlier.

Scotland also had its ninth sunniest year on record in 2023 from records going back to 1910 and in Eastern regions received more than twice the normal rainfall with Angus Fife and Aberdeenshire recording one of their ten wettest Decembers on record.

Rainfall details that go back to 1836 show that annual rainfall is increasing with seven of the ten wettest years occurring in the last 35 years with the most recent year to feature in the top 20 driest years being 1955.

There is a marked increase in rainfall during winter, with October-March rainfall increasing by nearly a third in recent times which has seen increased flooding.

The effect of climate change

Questions continue to be asked if the world is taking note regarding climate change as in 2022 the heatwave across Europe killed nearly 62,000 people and the multi-year drought in Eastern Europe sees 40 million people facing severe hunger.

Globally we see coal mines continue to operate, ongoing oil, and gas production, and the next international climate conference, COP29 which starts in November this year is being hosted by Azerbaijan in Baku and will negotiate to improve the climate and again following COP 28 are a country dependent on fossil fuel income.

Now to comment on current issues nearer home the final rainfall figures for Lochton near Coldstream as presented by John Aitchison were 93.9mm for December to give a total for the year of 705.5mm or 27.75 inches which traditionally is approximately 2inches less than some farms further away from the river Tweed.

I have rainfall details from Keith Chalmers-Watson who farms at Fenton Barns in East Lothian, and he had 26.7 inches which he says is a 4.2% increase on his 25-year average of 25.1 inches and comments that East Lothian rainfall never varies by more than 5% per annum.

The wheat market

UK wheat prices have followed world market prices lower since the beginning of the year and there is not much domestic demand with animal feed compound use only 6000 tonnes up from last year at 12.4m tonnes of wheat, barley, maize and oats, which is still below the five-year average of 13.0m tonnes and would see a carryover of 3m tonnes into next year.

The cheapest UK feed wheat prices are at about £13.00 above what is required to secure export sales but some of the 3m tonnes carryover could well be required to meet the demand for next season due to a lack of winter wheat planted because of the very wet autumn which could see a 2024 UK wheat crop of 13.2m tonnes compared to 14m tonnes last year.

Milling wheat premiums have remained high and in July the premium over feed wheat stood at over £70.00 per tonne but by November had dropped to just over £60.00 but still well over the five-year average of £25.70 per tonne. Premiums however have held up as domestic milling wheat production was down 10% this past harvest where just 13% of Group1 milling wheat met the required specification, this was down from 33% in 2022 and 20% in 2021 and was mostly due to the damp harvest affecting the quality of the crop. As a result of lower availability, imports have totalled 580,800 tonnes, up 20% on the year.

The life feed wheat futures for the May 2024 old crop currently stand at £183.70, down £7.65 from 21st December, and for the November 2024 new crop stand at £202.95, down £6.15 but with a price carry of over £13.00 per tonne if there is unsold wheat currently in store is it worthwhile holding onto any stock until harvest time?

Cash flow and interest charges will decide if space is required for new harvest crops. It will also depend on what the weather does in the next few months as to how much of the intended winter crop will get planted as well.

The UK/Europe relationship

The problems with growing wheat in the UK and Europe are not happening in the US where Kansas who is the number one wheat producing state has got crops at 43% good /excellent condition as of 31st December compared to 19% last year and Oklahoma is at 67% good/excellent compared to 38% last year and Texas has improved to 49% which last year their crop was in the second worst condition ever recorded at this time but did improve later on.

There are pressures on EU and Black Sea prices as Russia produced a second bumper wheat harvest at 90m tonnes and is expected to export a record 50m tonnes during this season.

Ukraine has exported 66% of wheat imports into the EU with 58.6% of these imports going to Spain which historically would have come from the UK. Another problem for EU exports is the euro strength against the US dollar as since October the euro has strengthened 4.3% which has meant that EU wheat supplies have not been as competitive on the global export market.

To date, the EU has exported 15.8m tonnes which is 51% of total forecast exports.

Feed barley prices

Feed barley is at a £22.00-£25.00 /tonne discount to feed wheat so barley is at maximum inclusion rates in animal compound rations. Feed barley exports have been low, but some have been moving and by the end of the year 315,000 tonnes had moved compared to 550,000 the previous year. Feed barley has been selling at around £150-165.00 per tonne and malting barley has been at a premium of £78.40 per tonne as of January 4, which is the highest price gap so far this season.

Barley production was down 5% from last year but is expected to rise by 11% this year which will replace some of the winter barley and other winter crops not sown due to the wet autumn. Domestic, human, and industrial consumption of barley this season is forecast to remain in line with last season at 1.985m tonnes and for the season to date, total barley usage by brewers, maltsters, and distillers is up 1.7% on the year.

This past week GB fertiliser prices have been quoted for up to December 2023 for Imported AN (34.5%N) at £354/tonne which is 49% back from December 2022, quoted then at £700.00/tonne and compares to December 2020 at £217.00 /tonne.

Natural gas futures are quoted at 77.13/therm and this time last year was 171.3pence/therm so back 45% and since the start of December nearby UK natural gas prices have dropped back 30%.