Further decline in the EU dairy herd has been forecast for 2018, with the latest short-term outlook from the European Commission (EC) as of December 2017, revealing a 1% decline in the number of dairy cows compared to the same period the previous year.

However, while cow numbers are down across the EU, the figures are inconsistent across member states, with the Netherlands showing a 7% reduction while cow numbers in Ireland increased by 4%.

But, despite the reduced herd, the EC forecasts milk deliveries to grow by 1.4% in 2018, although this growth profile is anticipated to vary over the year. In January 2018, collections were 4% ahead of the year earlier, while in February and March, adverse weather conditions impeded grass growth and prolonged the time cows were kept in-doors. The knock on effect was a slowdown in milk collection growth, bringing the projected milk collection for first quarter of the year to 3% above last year. Growth is expected to slow for the remainder of 2018.

Meanwhile, daily delivery figures from AHDB Dairy show GB milk production finished the 2017-18 milk year at 12,402m litres – up 349m litres compared to the previous year. Production though, was still around 113m litres lower than 2015-16, which was the highest level of GB production since the 1980’s.

This year has been hampered by terrible weather conditions in 2018, which saw an estimated 19m uncollected late February/early March. As well as this, the cold temperatures and rain have resulted in a number of areas being affected by sodden fields.

The levy board claims the weather will be the crucial factor to the start of 2018-19 milk year as fields can recover quickly if the weather changes for the better soon. However, feed supplies are likely to be dwindling and the next few weeks could potentially force a farmer’s hand – turnout onto unsuitable ground or purchase more feed.

Conditions are just as bad, if not worse in some areas in Ireland too, and there are those who have turned out, so field management will be crucial for Irish production. In addition, the demand for imported forage is said to have increased, highlighting the anxious situation.