Scottish pig prices have soared in recent months, but remain a long way short of meeting costs of production, let alone allowing a margin.

Over the past three months, prices have risen by more than 40p per deadweight kg from a low of 138p in March, to just shy of 182p mid June.

Latest figures show the SPP UK spec for the week ending June 18, levelled at 181.83p – up 1.84p on the week, and a massive 27.59p on the year.

This price compares to those hitting the EU spec which levelled at 185p for the same week, which represents a rise of 1.88p on the previous seven days and 28p on the same week in 2021.

However, with costs of production nearer 240p/dwkg, according to those in the know, the industry has a long way to go yet, but, there is at last some light at the end of the tunnel.

“Things are beginning to look a bit brighter,” said Andy McGowan, managing director of Scottish Pig Producers, based in Brechin.

“The wheat price has also eased a bit, but electricity and labour – elements key to the industry – are up and will remain high.

“The pig industry has never seen prices rise as fast as they have done this year and they should keep going because there is a real shortage of pig meat coming,” said Mr McGowan.

He added that the Scottish herd is already down 15% on the year, and numbers south of the Border are expected to be reduced by a similar amount.

“There will be a shortage of supply we have not seen in decades and we could see more producers sell up after harvest in Scotland. That’s the time when pig producers, many of whom are also arable farmers, will decide whether they sell their grain and make a profit or keep it for feed and have another loss making year,” Mr McGowan said, pointing out that most producers had seen bank balances in the red for some 18 months now.

While prices have improved significantly, he added that it’s the retailers who now have to increase values on the supermarket shelves.

“Prices have not really moved on supermarket shelves. Most of the price increases have been done by the processors, but for pig production to be sustainable in Scotland, the retailers have to increase their prices,” concluded Mr McGowan.

Adding to that need to encourage higher prices is a fast approaching decline in supplies. There are no longer the backlogs of pigs awaiting to be slaughtered now and estimated throughputs appear to be falling.

Latest figures show slaughterings of 169,400, which although remains well up on the year, is some 3500 head down on the week.

The average carcase weight was 91.29kg, down on the week but slightly higher on the year. This brings the number of clean pigs killed this year to an estimated 4.3m – 1% higher than a year ago.

Weaner values are also up compared to the dark days in April

Pig meat production is also in decline throughout the EU, with the latest figures from AHDB revealing a 7% year on year decline.

Production has fallen in Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Italy and Poland with only Spain noting an increase (+4%).

However, prices on the continent are mixed with values in Spain up at €212.26/100kg, (equivalent to 182.04p, below the UK reference price of 186.15p/kg).

Prices in Germany, have been stable at around €188/100kg, while values in Denmark have fallen by €10 in the past four weeks to €168.17/100kg. The EU average reference price has risen by €1.42 to €187.32/100kg (equivalent to 160.66p/kg).