Milk production in GB for the 2021/22 season is expected to be down 1.2% on 2021 figures at 12.4bn litres based on AHDB Dairy's December ’21 forecast update.

Latest figures reveal December production down 3.6% on 2020 figures, but up 3.8% from November 2021 which although the month on month improvement follows seasonal patterns, the increase is still below the 4% average of the past two years.

Average daily deliveries for December were 32.7m litres per day, down from 33.9m litres per day the previous year. Overall production in the current season (April-December) stands at 1.2% below that of 2020/21.

The 1.2% fall on production figure is down from the September forecast, when the levy board predicted a 0.2% decline year-on-year and is based on less milk actually delivered in the September to November period than previously predicted and lower average milk yields. It is also forecast that yields will remain low through until the spring on the back of ever increasing costs of production.

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Furthermore, even if milk prices increase to cover these rising costs, yields are unlikely to improve until calving time comes around.

AHDB Dairy also forecast milk production to continue behind that of 2021 heading into the spring of 2022, with the total amount of milk produced through the summer and autumn rising to figures closer to 2020. However, the board also warned huge uncertainty remains when input costs are spiralling as a result of high inflation.

GB organic milk deliveries are also down 1.5% on the final quarter of 2020, with the figures for December 2021, showing a massive fall of 4.7% compared to December 2020.

For the first full calendar year of organic milk deliveries recorded by AHDB Dairy, overall volumes are put at 494m litres for 2021.