Crops and markets steady as mild weather lifts winter outlook

We have had no frost here in the Borders to speak of, but I did meet a Scottish Borders council lorry out gritting the roads for the first time last week. Following on from the 73mm of rain in September on the Lochton rain gauge near Coldstream 48.7mm was recorded in October to give a total of 403mm or 15.8 inches as at the end of October.

There is no sign of any pigeon damage on the oilseed rape as most crops were sown early and are all looking very strong and healthy.

Wheat

Sterling has remained weak compared to the euro, which has supported wheat futures, which reached a two-month high on November 5, of £181.75 for the May 2026 contract and currently sits at £179.15.

Prices were being supported by the announcement of a possible US-China trade deal which saw a rally in European wheat markets, but this has appeared to have not taken place. It was reported that Chinese importers had booked 120,000 tonnes of US wheat for December shipment and a US sorghum shipment was going to China following a meeting between the US and China heads of state which again supported prices.

Traders are trying to continue the rally driven by the US-China trade talks, but both London and Paris wheat markets have eased back slightly. Planting conditions across the Northern hemisphere remain good and French soft wheat and winter barley planting up to November 3 were 79% and 87% complete respectively, both ahead of the five-year average.

Russia is looking to plant up to 4% less wheat than last year and has recently reduced its wheat export tax to just $1/t to help promote export sales but with poor Russian domestic wheat prices farmers are not keen to sell. Russian wheat production has now been estimated higher than the previous figure, now 88Mt, compared to the USDA estimate of 85Mt. Forecasts for Russian wheat exports in 2025-26 have been increased to 43.8Mt, reflecting better crop prospects. The Russian government is also considering introducing a 20Mt grain export quota for the period February 15, to June 30, 2026.

Last season’s quota for the same period was 10.6Mt for wheat but the proposed quota would also include maize and barley.

The EU commission has reported that EU wheat exports are lower, down 41% at just 2.2Mt, from July to October 2025, total EU exports are estimated at 10-10.5Mt. This compares to Russia who exported 5.5Mt in October alone, bringing the total for the season to 16.5Mt and Ukraine who exported 6.2Mt. Combined exports from Europe, Ukraine and Russia total approximately 33.2Mt so far this season, 43.3% of Ukraine’s 2025 what crop has at least 11.5% protein compared to 35.4% in 2024.

The EU commission also increased its 2025-26 wheat production estimate to 133.4Mt, however the EU’s exports and ending stocks remain unchanged at 31Mt and 10.8Mt respectively. The Argentinean wheat harvest is around 12% complete and looking to have a 22Mt crop, up from 18.6Mt last year and is looking like it will be price competitive from December onwards, but traders think that Australian and Canadian wheat is just as competitive. Global grain production is forecast to rise by 72.6Mt in the 2025-26 season, reaching 2,379Mt.

The increase is largely driven by a 62.6Mt uplift in maize output with much of this growth coming from the USA.

Oilseeds

The EU rapeseed production for 2026-27 is forecast to rise by 7% to approximately 6.46Mha as farmers are getting better margins than from cereals.

Rapeseed production this year was 19.9Mt while sunflower production was estimated at 8.5Mt. The sowing of winter crops in Europe has been helped by the ideal autumn weather which has been partly due as well to the increased rapeseed Ha. The oilseed market is still being governed in part by the relationship between the US and China where they appear to have overcome some of their differences resulting in a reduction in tariffs between the two.

This should allow more US soybeans to trade into China and has resulted in soybean futures up around 10% last week. There has also been progress with the Canada and China trade issues which if resolved would see more trade between the two countries and let more Australian canola go to China.

Oilseed rape delivered Erith dropped £6.00/t to £424.50/t and slow levels of ex farm sales is making it more difficult for oilseed rape crushing mills to get enough supplies which has been supporting prices which have now eased as global oilseed production is more than enough to meet demand. Conditions of new crop in the UK are generally very good which could see an oilseed rape crop above 1Mt once again. Looking back at the 2025 oilseed rape harvest the national average yield for winter oilseed rape was calculated at 3.7t/ha.

This is up 20% on the five -year 2020-24 average yield and is one of the highest levels since 2017

Barley

There has been some export business from the UK but globally the barley market could come under pressure before Christmas as the Australian and Argentinean barley harvest proceeds they are both expecting near record crops.

The malting barley market has come under further pressure with very few buyers, and this is resulting in malting barley being sold for feed. With little or no demand in both the UK and Europe there is a large surplus looking for a home. Looking forward to 2026 cropping, the spring barley area is anticipated down because of a significant increase in the wheat planted area.

In 2025-26 the availability of barley is estimated at 7.928Mt, down 559,000 year on year. With a smaller planted area this season and very mixed yields, UK barley production is estimated to fall by 562,00t down from 2024 levels to 6.439Mt which is the smallest UK barley crop since 2012-13. Total domestic consumption of barley in 2025-26 is estimated 6.227Mt down 275,000t from 2024-25. Human and Industrial barley usage is expected to decline by 77,000t on the year to 1.721Mt in 2025-26, and the current cost of living crisis is continuing to impact the consumption of alcohol in the UK.

In 2025-26 barley usage in animal feed is estimated to decrease by 195,000t to 4.300Mt driven by an expected drop in feed on farm consumption outweighing a rise in usage by compounders.

Feed barley is pricing competitively against other feed grains and is expected to displace wheat in some rations.

Fertiliser

Global fertiliser markets continue their upward price rises, driven by higher demand across Europe, including the UK and other nitrate markets.

India will again tender for an additional 2.5Mt of ammonium Nitrate and Urea fertiliser having only been able to secure 25% of its previous tonnage due to suppliers not wanting to quote and the reluctance of China exporting any urea. Commentators within the UK marketplace have said that UK and European markets are still only 50% covered and huge volumes are still required for spring usage which can only lead to higher prices.