Looking into wheat and crop market going into 2026

In November, we had in the Borders 110mm, or 4.4 inches, to give a total of 514mm, or 20.24 inches. We have had a lot more rain since then, including 22mm during last Sunday evening and the forecast is for more to follow, which now sees surface water in the fields once again.

Temperatures this week are forecast to reach a high of 14C in some areas which would be 6C higher than where it usually is in December, and gales up to 70mph.

Winter crop update

The AHDB November crop development report says that only 3% of planned winter wheat crop remains to be drilled as most crops were sown earlier into good seedbed conditions and have grown well.

As of November 24, 83% of the 2026 winter wheat crop, 89% of winter barley, 87% of winter oats and 82% of winter oilseed rape crops are in good or excellent condition.

When we look back to last November, wet weather delayed drilling, especially for winter barley, and 18% of the winter wheat crop had still to be planted with just 44% of winter crops were rated as in good or excellent condition.

Looking forward to next year, the potential for harvest looks good but as usual we need the weather to be beneficial for crops to grow and develop.

Wheat

UK wheat futures have been falling recently to new contract lows and May 2026 now stands at £170.70/t, which is £4 down from two weeks ago.

Farmers have experienced two very difficult years with low commodity prices and high input levels culminating in depressed malting and milling premiums adding further pressure. The ample global supply of wheat has been putting downward pressure on prices and is not helped by the strengthening of sterling against the US dollar and euro over the past weeks, with £1 reaching its highest level since late October at £1=1.145 euros and $1.333 respectively last week.

Feed wheat delivered in December in England was quoted at £173.50/t with prices unchanged on the week, but bread wheat was down by £3.50/t for delivery in December at £186.00/t. Good growing conditions are also adding price pressure with the EU-27 estimate of soft wheat production increasing again to 134.2Mt. The weather is currently good for 2026 crops across Europe.

French cereal crop conditions remain good and as of December 1, 96% of both winter barley and emerged soft wheat crops were in good or excellent condition.

The USDA crop report indicated that 48% of the US winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent but behind last year’s rating at this time of 55%.

Argentina’s 2025-26 wheat harvest is expected to reach a record 25.5Mt, up from earlier predictions of 24Mt and up by nearly 7M tonnes from last year.

Australia’s winter crop production is expected to increase by 10% to 66.3Mt, which would be the second-largest winter crop on record.

Australian wheat output is forecast at 35.6Mt against 33.8Mt in September estimates, and barley has been revised up 1.1Mt to 15.7Mt.

Meanwhile, Russia’s 2025 wheat crop has been revised to 88.5Mt with total grain output around 139Mt. For 2026, Russian wheat production is forecast at 86 and 91Mt planted on 20Mha and in Ukraine, 99.5% of the planned winter crop area had been sown by November 25 which totalled 4.74M ha.

In 2025, the Russian winter wheat planted area was its lowest since 2018 and winter crops were reported to have been in the worst condition recorded.

Canada’s wheat production for 2025 has also been increased to a new record of just under 40Mt, up 11.2% year on year, with large increases to barley and oats as well.

Last week saw Ukrainian drone attacks damage two Russian oil tankers in the Black Sea which unsettled the grain markets and could have helped grain prices, but traders appeared to be relaxed about this attack. However, futures did rise following a further attack by Ukraine on a Russian vessel carrying sunflower oil.

Barley

Demand for feed barley remains strong leading up to new year due to lack of tonnage coming on to the market from Argentina with its harvest being delayed by rain. Australia, which is having a record harvest estimated at 15.7mt, has no available ships to export its grain at present.

However, this situation will eventually change and see more tonnage becoming available which could well see prices ease. The barley discount price to wheat is much tighter than it was in 2025 and is currently around £11.00-£13.00/t which could see feed demand decline. With a struggling malting barley sector due to reduced demand, AHDB is forecasting a 15% decrease in spring barley area for 2026.

Pulses

Feed bean prices have been easing as feed demand is less than expected.

There is also a surplus of beans in Europe, where demand has been low due to lower cereal prices. The market for human consumption beans is now finished for the year, with Australian beans selling cheaply into the Middle Eastern markets.

Fertiliser

CF fertilisers has stated that it is now sold out of any January tonnage and can offer tonnage for February only. Prices for February are expected to increase due to supply constraints and strong nitrogen demand. Yara has also increased prices and imported products remain difficult to source, making it difficult for imports to compete with UK-produced fertiliser on both price and availability.

In the short to medium term, nitrogen markets are expected to remain firm. India has been tendering for a further 2.5Mt and so far has just been offered 1.5Mt and is looking for the balance before Christmas, which will put some price pressure on the marketplace.

It is thought that the Middle East and Russia will supply the bulk of product with limited tonnes from China and other countries.

Oilseeds

Global oilseed markets weakened last week with EU rapeseed futures falling – and this affected UK rapeseed prices as well.

Two weeks ago, prices were supported by firmer vegetable oil prices. A slight increase in Brent crude oil futures also added support and currently a barrel is worth $63.75, up $1.37 on the week. UK-delivered rapeseed price into Erith stands at £427.00/t, down £6.50 from last week.

Rapeseed prices have struggled to make much progress recently and farmers are looking for MATIF futures to reach 500 euros which are currently sitting at 471.25 euros and is the reason for EU farmers to be behind the average tonnage sold at this time.

There could be increased imports from Canada and Australia which are looking at a canola crop of 7.2Mt, up 13.1% on last year. But it will depend on how much rapeseed is bought by China from Australia. Canada is looking at a record crop of around 21.8Mt, 13.3% up on last year, and China, normally Canada’s biggest export customer, is not currently a buyer due to tariffs.

The EU is forecasting a 20.8Mt oilseed rape crop next year which would be up by 1.5%. Early sown winter rapeseed is being favoured in Europe due to better margins compared to cereals, and rapeseed prices are being supported by limited imports and firm biofuel driven demand.

Changes in German biofuel policy could see an increase in demand for rapeseed oil as a biofuel feedstock from 2026 onwards.

Rapeseed imports into the EU have dropped this season, partly due to reduced imports from Ukraine which are normally key for early season supply for the EU.