Scottish lamb prices maintain impressive resilience

After holding firm for around a fortnight following the Eid al-Adha festival, prices began to ease in the middle of June. During the first week of July, Scottish auction mart prices averaged just under £3.80/kg liveweight for new season lambs weighing between 25.5kg and 45.5kg. While this represents a fall of around 19% from this season's peak, auction sales on Thursday, 9 July, indicated a slight recovery in values.

Despite the seasonal adjustment, prices remain around 6.5% higher than they were at the same point last year and almost 25% above the five-year average for early July.

The stronger-than-expected market has persisted despite increased numbers of new season lambs coming forward at Scottish auction marts, with throughput comfortably exceeding both last year's levels and the five-year average. QMS says tighter overall supplies have helped underpin prices, largely because this season's hoggs were marketed earlier than usual.

International trade is also continuing to support the market.

UK lamb exports increased by 12% during the first four months of 2026 while also achieving stronger prices. At the same time, imports have remained broadly stable despite rising costs, as production constraints across the Southern Hemisphere and firm global demand have lifted international lamb prices, reducing competitive pressure from imported product.

QMS Market Intelligence Manager Iain Macdonald said overall UK lamb availability during the first five months of the year had remained broadly in line with 2025.

"Heavier carcase weights have increased production, with much of that additional output absorbed by stronger export demand," he said.

"Given prices have remained historically high under these conditions, we can be confident that demand for Scottish lamb continues to be strong."

Looking ahead, QMS expects the usual seasonal increase in lamb supplies throughout July and into August, with prices likely to continue easing from the exceptionally high spring levels.

Historically, lamb prices fall by more than a third between the seasonal peak and the autumn low, although there can be considerable variation between years. This season, prices have already retreated by around 20% before the main influx of lambs has reached the market.

While it remains too early to accurately assess the size of this year's lamb crop, a modest increase in the breeding flock suggests overall production could be similar to last year's, even if lambing percentages prove slightly lower.

Mr Macdonald said the market was entering the second half of the year from a position of considerable strength.

"Seasonal price declines are expected as supplies recover, but this is likely an adjustment from exceptionally high levels rather than the beginning of a sustained downturn," he said.

"The combination of supportive export markets, constrained global production and relatively firm domestic demand provides a solid foundation for the lamb market through the months ahead.

"In addition, persistent strong demand for Scottish lamb at home and overseas means there is a significant opportunity to produce and process more at home."

New economic modelling by QMS suggests Scotland's sheep sector could increase output by around £77 million and contribute an additional £21 million in Gross Value Added (GVA) by 2032, driven by continued strong domestic and international demand.