Harvest 2026: Dry weather, strong yields and volatile grain markets

Here in the Borders, as of last Monday, we still had not seen any rain apart from the very odd shower, so things have remained dry to allow harvest operations to continue.

Temperatures have remained higher than normal but nothing like what the south of England has experienced over the past months. This has not been the case in northern areas of Scotland where it has not been as warm and there has been some more normal rainfall.

In the south of England, they have had 40 days this year with temperatures over 30C and this has broken the previous record of 34 days over 30C in one year. There are also areas in the south where they have not seen any rain for over 60 days and, as has been seen on the national news, large areas of land have dried up now with no vegetation to be seen.

It would appear at the time of writing that the current spell of five heatwaves may be coming to an end, which will be very welcome.

General harvest update

Some farms have now completed harvest here in the Borders and are experiencing this year as the earliest ever to complete the combining part of harvest.

Most of the crop will not require much drying other than to cool it down before going into storage – and the dry weather has made it easier for combines and balers to operate. There appears to be plenty of straw for livestock requirements as well but again this will not be the case further south.

Yields locally are all being quoted as mainly good for first wheat and barley where some early heavy thundery rain must have been enough to keep the crops growing. Until now, 1976 has always been the reference date for a hot dry harvest but 2026, some 50 years on, must now be the year to quote for the next generation.

The latest figures from AHDB quote winter barley harvest in the UK as 98% complete with yield at 6.8t/ha which is very close to the 10-year average of 6.9t/ha. Winter oilseed rape is 95% finished at 3.9t/ha which is above the average of 3.3t/ha and with the strong prices throughout the country has been the crop to leave a margin especially in the south, and the only crop grown this year with yields above the five-year average.

Winter wheat is 85% complete with an average UK yield to date of 6.7t/ha, 13% below the five-year average of 7.9t/ha. This yield will improve dramatically once figures come in from further north and Scotland. Farmers are quoting figures in this area of over 11.0t/ha and that is with very low moisture off the combine. Spring barley is quoted as 54% finished at 4.1t/ha compared to the 10-year average of 5.7t/ha, but again we should see an increase in later figures from Scotland. This just leaves oats at 80% complete at 4.2t/ha as against the average of 5.4t/ha, which is 21% down and at a 46-year low.

Much will depend now if we get a prolonged spell of wet weather before the later regions manage to gather in the last of this year’s crop.

Wheat

Escalating tensions in the Black Sea region continue to cause price volatility as Russia and Ukraine continue with their drone strikes on each other.

This is giving concern for world commodity traders who are getting increasingly concerned about the continuity of wheat exports from both countries as their ports are becoming increasingly under pressure from the war. It is estimated that Russian grain exports fell by 20% year on year in July, and further reductions are expected in August.

Similarly, Ukraine’s grain exports are reported to be down by 10% year on year in the first 14 days of August. The USDA has reduced the wheat exports from that region by 2.5Mt down to 59.5Mt, and is a figure that could be difficult to manage.

The US is also looking at a reduced wheat tonnage output down to 41.6Mt as its spring wheat crop conditions have deteriorated due to drought, with only 51% rated as good to excellent which is down four points from last week.

Due to the uncertainty of wheat supplies from the Black Sea region and deteriorating US wheat crop, the Chicago Board of Trade wheat contract jumped up by 3.6% and the London Liffe feed wheat futures for November 2026 saw an increase of £4.50 per tonne from earlier this month, up to £201.00/t which on July 22, reached its highest price to date of £207.00/t.

May 2027 futures rose by £4.75 to £208.00/t over the same period.

Weak export demand in Western Europe, coupled with some repeated cancellation tenders of wheat from countries such as Jordan, is also giving concern for global wheat markets as well. Wheat silos in French ports are also full with little sign of export demand.

Algeria, however, bought around 720,000t of milling wheat which gave some support to EU prices. Here in the UK, flour millers used 8% less wheat in the 2025-26 season than in the previous one due to the decline in bioethanol demand. Animal feed production in June 2026 was 7% below last year due to good grass growth earlier in the year. The UK imported 284.000t of wheat in June to give a 2025-26 season total of 2.615Mt, which was 15% less than in 2024-25.

Barley

The UK barley crop planted this year is the lowest since 2012, but maltsters are in no rush to buy supplies, even with the expected lower tonnage to be made available as a lot of the intended malting barley in England has finished up on the feed heap as the quality has not been good enough. Barley is also at a £15-£17 price discount to wheat so is competitive to finish up in a feed ration.

There are also plenty of carry-over malting barley stocks, coupled with weak malting barley demand.

In fact, brewers’ maltsters and distillers used 18% less barley in June 2026 than at the same time last year, and their total usage was 1.44Mt – down 19% from 2024-25.

UK barley exports totalled 40,400t in June to give a UK export total of 479,000t in 2025-26, which is a 32% drop from 2024-25 and the lowest total since 2012-13.

Oats

UK oat millers milled 4% more oats during last April-June than in the same period last year and this took the full season total to 521,000t, which was 6% up on last year.

In June, there were just 1900t of UK oat exports, but the 2025-26 UK oats exports were 46% up on the 2024-25 total at 93,000t.

Oilseed rape

The ongoing conflict with Russia and Ukraine has seen oilseed prices rise once again and been helped as well by the dry conditions for sunflower crops in some European countries as well as Ukraine where farmers there ideally like to plant winter rapeseed between August 10 to 25.

Brent crude oil futures were up 6% last week due to further ongoing issues in the Strait of Hormuz.

Oilseed rape delivered to Erith for November 2026 was up £10 to £474.50 as prices were also helped by record-low river Rhine water levels. Other European waterways are also restricting movement of rapeseed, vegetable oils and biodiesel feed stock movement into Germany and the Netherlands. Canada is reporting record canola planting of 23.4m acres for 2026 – up 8.4% from last year which could be a bonus if the hot and dry conditions reduce yield potential in parts of northern and eastern Europe where production estimates of 20.5Mt will be relatively unchanged from last year.

Food security

Due to the recent record hot weather this year, the UK harvest could amount to just 19.5Mt. This would be the lowest total since records began in 1984 and could cost farmers as much as £390m in lost revenue. The stress to crops resulting in lower yields will most likely result in a need to import more food to supply the nation.

This will result in higher prices for consumers and UK farmers will not see any benefit from imported produce.

Global markets and commodity movement would appear to be very dependent on the ongoing Russian Ukraine conflict and to what extent damage is done to their ports – which will change large movement of grain and oilseeds in future and will see volatile prices for oil and gas as well which also controls fertiliser costs.