Scottish harvest: Early finish, good yields and firmer wheat prices

Weather

Temperatures have remained in the low 20°C range for most of the month and harvest has progressed well with very little rain.

Surprising as it may seem, having just received the latest Lochton Farm rainfall details, August has been the wettest month of 2026 so far with 67.6mm, or just over 2.5 inches, giving total rainfall for the year of 317.9mm, or 12.51 inches, to date.

Latterly, we have seen some heavy showers and enough to get the recently sown oilseed rape to germinate. Rain is forecast for most areas in the UK, but especially in the south and west of England, which will be most welcome.

Harvest update

Apart from some barley in the north of Scotland and winter beans, everything else is more or less tidied up and it will have been one of the earliest finishes to harvest for most growers.

Farmers generally appear to be pleased following the long dry spell, with yields and low drying charges helping as well. Straw has been baled and stacked, with fields rapidly being worked ready to be sown once again.

Potato harvest is now well under way and early reports appear to be good in terms of size and quality.

Maize

Global grain prices have picked up following forecasts that the US maize crop will be down 10% on the record 2025 crop of 389.8Mt, with yields down 7%, but it will still be the country’s third-biggest crop on record.

Late-season rainfall can still improve yields as harvest approaches. Chicago Board of Trade futures rose by 5.2% last week to $5.36 a bushel, taking the contract to its highest level since July 2023.

The US maize crop was rated 57% good to excellent, down from 60% the previous week.

Wheat

The International Grains Council cut its forecast for world wheat production in 2026-27 by 4.3Mt to 816.7Mt, partly due to lower yields in Europe and the UK following the long, hot summer.

This is expected to result in a global wheat crop 27.5Mt below last season, resulting in higher wheat prices. Prices are also rising because of the ongoing conflict in the Black Sea region, with increased Russian missile attacks on Ukraine affecting grain exports.

Exports from key Russian and Ukrainian Black Sea ports have virtually halted.

Ukrainian exports in the first half of August totalled just 794,000t, well down on July’s total of 3.67Mt, indicating that wheat exports could be reduced to as low as 5-10Mt for the 2026-27 season if the ports do not return to full export capacity.

The Black Sea region accounts for 70% of Russian grain exports, and this has virtually come to a halt due to the two countries’ continuing fighting. This will result in both countries increasing their stocks in the coming season, from 18% at the end of 2025-26 to 28%.

Due to the damage incurred during the ongoing war, it is expected that it could take up to four months to repair Russia’s export-port terminals.

Chicago December spring wheat futures rose to a multi-year high of $7.48 a bushel.

London feed wheat futures have also risen sharply over the past two weeks and for November 2026 now stand at £215.50/t, up £14.50/t on the week. May 2027 futures rose by £12.75/t to £220.75/t.

Wheat prices have again been helped by the US spring wheat crop now being rated 51% good to excellent, slightly down from the previous week’s rating. The US spring wheat harvest is now 62% complete, ahead of the five-year average, while US hard red wheat is under stress from temperatures of 38°C.

Paris wheat futures are also up 4% due to lower available tonnage and a shift in demand away from Black Sea wheat towards suppliers including France, where wheat quality is good, as well as Bulgaria and Romania.

Egypt and other countries are now looking to alternative European wheat suppliers, which has seen prices of around $271/t, compared with a discounted Russian price of $207/t.

So far, EU soft wheat exports have started the season slowly, down 49% year-on-year at 1.48Mt as of mid-August. In Germany, the winter wheat crop is forecast to fall by 7% to 20.9Mt, again, like other countries, due to a dry spring and record high temperatures.

Prices will remain volatile and, if there were any sign of the war ending, it is expected that wheat prices would quickly fall as more Black Sea wheat became available.

Grain stocks

At the end of June, AHDB released estimates of cereal stocks held by merchants, ports and co-operatives.

Stocks were 9% lower for home-grown wheat, 18% lower for imported wheat and 7% lower for home-grown barley than last year. They held 2% more maize due to a rise in imports in June and 25% more home-grown oats than the previous year.

Defra also released estimates of on-farm grain stocks south of the Border, where wheat stocks were just 351,000t, a fall of 46% from June 2025 and the lowest level for June since 2000. On-farm barley stocks are at their lowest level since 2022 at 111,000t, which is 18% down from last year.

Oat stocks are down 24% from 2025 at 39,000t but 16,000t above June 2024.

Barley

Barley prices were lower recently because of harvest pressure and traded at a significant discount to wheat, but prices have picked up again due to the ongoing conflict disrupting grain movement from the Black Sea region.

There is a £15.00-£20.00/t price discount on feed barley compared with wheat, but with a large tonnage of potential malting barley not making the grade, this is now entering the feed barley market, thereby depressing feed barley prices.

Maltsters are not reducing their malting specifications, so feed barley stocks will continue to rise. Maltsters are hoping that the Scottish malting barley harvest will be better than the English one, where nitrogen content, yields and quality were poor due to the very hot conditions. So far, this has been the case, with better quality north of the Border, which could see malting barley moving south to meet demand.

Fertiliser

Merchants estimate that fertiliser purchases are well behind where they would normally be, but more is thought to have been bought in the north of England and Scotland compared with the south of England.

Deliveries in the first two months of the season are well behind, which will put pressure on deliveries later in the season that are dependent on imports and shipping.

It is estimated that only around 50% of the tonnage normally ordered by the end of August has been purchased. There has been a little more activity following recent supplier price increases, with both ammonium nitrate and urea prices increasing, while recent rainfall is prompting growers to consider ordering.

The UK nitrogen market has been driven this summer more by weak demand than by any shortage of product.

Oilseed rape

Prospects for the 2026-27 oilseed rape crop have improved, with planted area estimated to have increased from the low levels experienced last year.

Better establishment and management for dealing with cabbage stem flea beetle have given growers more incentive to grow the crop once again. The UK oilseed rape area remains historically low, which could see oilseed supplies remain tight.

Recent rain throughout the UK will help build confidence to plant the crop into good seedbeds. Supply issues associated with Ukraine and Russia will also affect global supplies and prices, as will crude oil prices, which remain an important factor in the rapeseed market.

Brent crude oil futures rose by 6.6% last week to $94.39 a barrel due to concerns about the escalating situation in the Middle East. Stronger energy prices can support demand for vegetable oils, but oil prices can also increase market volatility.

Another factor is the risk of the El Nino weather event affecting palm oil production in 2027 and possibly 2028 in South-East Asia, which can affect oilseed output and potential global supplies and prices.

The USDA increased its 2026-27 global oilseed production forecast to a record 721Mt, around 20Mt above 2025-26. With end stocks unchanged, this leaves global supplies adequate in the immediate future.

In the UK, delivered rapeseed prices for November were reported at £473.00/t delivered Erith, similar to the previous week.