Beef and sheep farmers enjoy improved ex-farm prices

Results from the Scottish Government’s June Agricultural Census point to a 1.1% increase in ewe numbers, almost offsetting the previous year's decline but still 3% below the five-year average.

Interestingly, despite the poor spring weather and expected reduced lamb crop, lambing rates in Scotland matched those of June 2020, at 130.6%.

Read more: Breeding sheep sales to include Ayr, Carlisle, Dingwall and more

According to Iain Macdonald, senior economist analyst at Quality Meat Scotland, there were actually 1.1% more lambs on Scottish farms than a year earlier, helping explain why store lamb marketings have almost matched the highs of autumn 2020.

Rising productivity in recent years means that the 3.35m lamb crop in June 2021 was around 2% above the five-year average and almost 1% larger than in 2011.

However, the situation is markedly different south of the Border in England, where a 3.9% decline in the lamb crop, puts their numbers 6% below the five-year average. This was driven by a 2% reduction in ewe numbers and 2.6 fewer lambs born per 100 ewes than in 2020.

“Therefore, while the volume of lambs leaving Scottish farms for slaughter this season is likely to be slightly higher than in the 2020/21 season, at GB level, supply is tighter overall,” said Mr Macdonald.

A slow marketing profile has also supported farmgate prices so far this season. Defra slaughter data up to the end of September points to 15% reduction in lamb throughput at GB abattoirs between June and September compared to 2020, with volumes down 11% on the five-year average.

“Given the scale of this decline so far, slaughter numbers may begin to recover going forward, supporting availability for export in late 2021 and early 2022.

There has also been a rise in values throughout much of October, and for similar numbers traded to 2020. Nevertheless, producer prices have held firm, and are worryingly around 20% higher than last year and 40% above the five-year average.

Livestock census figures for Scotland

In contrast, cattle supplies have been extremely tight this year, with prime and mature cattle slaughter down 5% and 7% respectively from 2020 in the first nine months of 2021 at GB abattoirs.

“Census results suggest that this situation should begin to change, particularly in Scotland where cattle tend to be processed at younger ages. Indeed, the number of males aged 1-2 on Scottish farms was 1.8% higher than a year earlier in June,” explains Mr Macdonald.

The Scottish census also showed a more stable beef herd after a prolonged period of decline, down just 0.1% on 2020.

This figure is still however some 12% down on the past decade with beef cattle herd south of the Border also down by 12% since 2011.

Labour shortages in the processing sector have had more of an impact on farmgate prices in the pig sector this autumn than for cattle or sheep due to the significant increase in availability for slaughter.

Read more: Breeding ram and female sales from Dingwall, Thainstone and more

“In England, there was a 6% increase in fattening pigs in June, while in Scotland, numbers were up 2% on last year. A breakdown of the census data shows that these increases were front-loaded, with increases of 7% in the number of fattening pigs over 20kg in both countries,” said Mr Macdonald.

Looking forward, Mr Macdonald says a slightly slower increase in the availability of pigs for slaughter was signalled for England, with the number of piglets under 20kg 4% higher than in 2020.

Meanwhile, in Scotland, availability is set to fall back, as there were 8% fewer piglets under 20kg, reflecting a 9% contraction in the sow herd.

Nevertheless, Scottish sow numbers were only 1% below their five-year average and were 1% higher than their 10-year average.

In England, the sow herd has been trending downwards over the past decade and fell another 2% in the year to June 2021.